The H-1B visa debate intensifies under Trump, impacting tech growth and the Indian American community.
The H-1B visa programme has been instrumental in driving the growth of America’s tech industry over the past four decades. Through the years, millions of tech workers have come to the United States (US), contributed to the industry’s growth and benefited themselves. Among those who leveraged an H-1B visa as a pathway to success in the US are Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, and Satya Nadella and Sundar Pichai, the CEOs of Microsoft and Alphabet (the holding company for Google), respectively.
Since Donald Trump’s victory in the November presidential elections, an intense debate has emerged over the future of the H-1B programme. The debate was triggered by social media postings in late December by Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, who were named by Trump as co-heads of the department of government efficiency advisory commission. In response to some criticism of the H-1B programme, they asserted that the programme is essential for maintaining America’s global competitiveness and technological leadership.
These postings sparked strong opposition from Trump’s MAGA (Make America Great Again) coalition which propelled him to victories in two presidential elections. This group staunchly advocated for stricter immigration controls, arguing that the programme displaces American workers and suppresses wages. They claim that corporations exploit H-1B visas to import cheaper foreign labour rather than invest in domestic talent.
With Trump having returned to Washington on January 20, the faction that prevails in the H-1B debate will shape the future of the visa programme and, by extension, the tech industry itself. Although Trump has recently praised the H-1B programme, his actions tell a different story. Consider, for instance, an executive order he issued on his first day proposing to deny birthright citizenship to children born to parents with unlawful presence in the country. Immigration lawyers warn that this executive order could broadly apply to children born in the US to anyone who is not an American citizen or green card holder. The executive order, set to take effect on February 19 unless blocked by a court, has caused widespread concern among H-1B and L-1 visa holders.
It is also worth noting here that, although Trump has proclaimed support for the H-1B programme since the recent debate began, during his first term as president, there was increased scrutiny and higher denial rates for H-1B petitions and more restricted access to visas — though, no sweeping crackdowns occurred.
Another related development is the departure of Ramaswamy from DOGE on January 20, the day Trump was sworn in. Officially, he left the agency to run for Ohio governor, but many reports since then indicate that it was the Indian American’s post in support of H-1B visas that cost him the job. Whatever the reason behind Ramaswamy’s departure, the H-1B debate holds particular significance for the Indian American community and the Indian tech sector. More than 70% of H-1B visas are currently awarded to Indian nationals, making them the programme’s largest beneficiaries. In fiscal year 2023, 279,386 of the 386,318 approved H-1B petitions — 72.3% — were issued to Indian nationals. The figures were similar in the previous fiscal year when 441,502 visas were approved, and 320,791 (72.6%) of the recipients were Indian nationals.
For many Indian Americans, the H-1B visa has been an economic lifeline, a pathway to affluence, and a contributor to political influence. Over the past 25 years, the Indian American population has more than tripled, growing from 1.6 million to over 5 million. This demographic rise has been accompanied by growing political clout: Indian American representation in Congress has increased from none to six members, with many other Indian Americans holding local and statewide offices.
In addition to its impact in the US, the H-1B programme has also contributed to the growth of the Indian IT sector. Many US and Indian companies have leveraged the H-1B programme to train employees in India before bringing them to the US, creating a symbiotic relationship that has fuelled economic growth in both countries. Given these stakes, the current debate has left the Indian American community and the Indian IT industry deeply concerned.
The MAGA faction’s opposition to the H-1B programme is rooted in nativist economic concerns. Prominent figures in the Trump orbit such as Stephen Miller, the deputy chief of staff for policy and homeland security advisor, and former White House senior aide Steve Bannon have long targeted the programme, claiming that it undermines American workers. Media personalities such as Tucker Carlson amplify these arguments, portraying the programme as a “globalist” agenda threatening US jobs.
Their allies in Congress, including Iowa Senator Chuck Grassley, currently president pro tempore of the US Senate, echo these views. Their stance resonates with parts of the Republican base, which sees skilled immigration as a challenge to American workers’ wages and opportunities. This debate underscores a broader truth: elections have consequences. If Kamala Harris had won the presidency, the conversation would have likely been on reducing green card backlogs and expanding pathways to permanent residency. Instead, Trump’s victory has steered the discourse toward the nature of or whether the H-1B programme should exist at all.
Ultimately, the H-1B debate is not just about immigration; it is a referendum on America’s economic priorities and vision for the future. Restricting or eliminating the programme risks could create a skills gap in a critical industry, undermining economic growth and innovation. Conversely, extending or expanding the programme without reforms could fuel perceptions that the programme prioritises corporate profits over American workers.
Given the influence of both factions in the debate with President Trump, some type of compromise solution be reached. Time will tell how the debate on the future of the H-1B visa programme will be resolved. That resolution will impact not only the future of the H-1B programme but of the technology industry in America, India and globally as well.